Black Friday is one of the most important days of the year for both shoppers and retailers. Back in 2017, a study by the National Retail Federation (NRF) found that 174 million Americans shopped both online and offline during Black Friday promotions—more than half of the U.S. population. On average, each American spent about $335 USD during the Thanksgiving holidays in 2017. Black Friday online sales were also extremely high compared to previous years.
The term Black Friday has been around since the 1950s; however, it wasn’t always about sales and shopping. Today, Black Friday—the Friday after Thanksgiving in the U.S.—is popular across the globe.
According to Shopify Black Friday statistics of 2018, over $37 million USD in sales per hour was generated by Shopify merchants at the peak. Combined Black Friday and Cyber Monday (BFCM) sales reached over $1.5 billion USD. People shopped via phones, desktops, and in brick-and-mortar stores. The BFCM weekend in 2019 promised to be even bigger, with millions of people eager not to miss out on promotions and deals.
From a business perspective, Black Friday is a great chance to make a profit and clear overstock—but the behind-the-scenes management is challenging. Demand planning and forecasting are the keys to a successful Black Friday season. If businesses are not prepared in terms of inventory, they risk major losses. In this blog, we’ll help you build a Black Friday strategy with Intuendi demand forecasting software.
Demand Planning and Forecasting with Intuendi
Intuendi is a demand forecasting and inventory optimization software that offers powerful solutions for your planning needs. Demand planning is vital for long-term success, but it becomes absolutely essential during special events and holiday seasons. Before an event like Black Friday, the very first step is to prepare a demand forecast. Intuendi helps create accurate, reliable sales forecasts and manage inventory accordingly.
Intuendi provides event-specific forecasts, including Black Friday. Multiple factors are taken into account: last year’s sales data, weather conditions, seasonal patterns, cycles, and even economic influences if relevant. Intuendi’s smart, automated system collects data from multiple sources and generates forecasts within minutes. This saves you time, eliminates manual errors, and produces the accurate predictions you need.
Black Friday Promotions Strategy
Here are five important steps to include in your demand planning strategy. These elements are crucial for staying competitive and meeting customer demand during the season.
1. Identify Seasonality Patterns
Tracking seasonal demand is critical, as standard forecasts don’t fit special events like Black Friday. Seasonality patterns ensure forecast accuracy year-round.
The challenge is that Black Friday doesn’t follow strict patterns: it doesn’t occur on the same date each year, and customers don’t buy only seasonal products. Forecasts based solely on seasonality will lead to inaccuracies.
For example, consider the Chinese New Year. In both 2018 and 2019, it occurred in February, but in 2020 it shifted to January. Forecasting a February sales peak would have left businesses understocked in January.
Without the right tools, forecasts based on past weekly or monthly patterns may fail. Intuendi’s advanced engine accounts for both fixed events (like Christmas) and mobile events (like Easter and Black Friday), calculating accurate trends and seasonality.
2. Do Extensive Inventory Management
Inventory management is the foundation of a successful Black Friday strategy. Without it, other efforts lose impact. Strong inventory tracking prevents disasters, builds reliable data for future forecasts, and ensures visibility across both physical and digital stock.
During this time of year, shelves—real and virtual—can empty quickly. Intuendi’s smart inventory management tools provide end-to-end supply chain visibility and real-time stock analysis, helping you avoid costly stockouts.
With the rise of online Black Friday sales, accurate inventory management is even more critical. Businesses running on Shopify should also integrate Shopify inventory tracking into their strategy. Intuendi’s solutions streamline this process, making Black Friday management smoother across all channels.
3. Calculate the Best Promotions
As Black Friday approaches, businesses generate countless promotional ideas. But successful promotions must align with demand forecasts and market prices, not just sales ambitions.
The art of promotions goes beyond a simple SALE sign. Choose promotions carefully based on your goals:
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Target your efforts – one promotion cannot achieve multiple objectives.
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Plan the incentive – use discounts, samples/trials, or events that attract crowds and sales.
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Set clear objectives – determine sales targets, required inventory, and financial outcomes. Always calculate the ROI of your promotions.
4. Demand Forecast for the Black Friday Craze
Demand forecasting is the backbone of inventory management and the most critical part of the process. Poor forecasting during Black Friday risks:
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Losing customers
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Missing sales targets
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Facing stockouts
Advertisers often underestimate the demand of this commercial event, run out of budget too soon, or overspend on the event while neglecting the rest of the season. By optimizing forecasts early, businesses can avoid these pitfalls.
Intuendi’s demand forecasting software eliminates these risks. Forecasting with Intuendi makes your business more customer-centric, aligning processes with shopper needs. Meeting customer demand builds loyalty—the true driver of long-term business success.
5. Avoid Faulty Reordering
Fast-selling products bring profit, but also increase the risk of running low on inventory. This is where the reorder point (ROP) comes in—the inventory level that signals it’s time to restock.
Black Friday disrupts typical ROP strategies. Poor predictions can cause stockouts in September, followed by rushed, costly reorders in November. Suppliers may raise prices and extend lead times, leaving you at a disadvantage while competitors win sales.
Faulty reordering stems from poor forecasting. With timely predictions from Intuendi, you can reorder products in advance, accounting for lead times, saving both time and money, and keeping customers satisfied.
Conclusion
Retailers who fail to plan, allocate, and forecast across omni-channel operations will struggle to meet customer expectations during Black Friday. With Intuendi demand forecasting software, you can create an effective Black Friday strategy that not only helps you survive the frenzy but guides your business with accurate predictions and reliable results.
